Even before the COVID-19 crisis hit, there was much speculation about the uncertain economic future of movie theaters. Many argued that cinemas are facing irrelevance in the age of streaming and home theaters. Now, with theaters across the country being shut down, and many distributors (including Universal and Warner Brothers) opting to skip a theatrical release entirely in favor of a “home premiere”, many are wondering - does this prove that movie theaters have become obsolete?
First, some points in favor of the claim. It’s certainly a lot cheaper to avoid a theatrical release. A single DCP (the physical copy of a film that movie projectors play) can cost several thousand dollars, and thousands of DCP’s need to be made for a worldwide theatrical release. VOD services also take a much smaller cut of profits as opposed to theaters. It makes sense, given that theaters incur the not insignificant costs of owning a building, which VOD services don’t.
So if home releases are so much more cost effective, how do they stack up against theatrical releases? Well, pretty well, if evidence is to be believed. Universal’s daring move to release Trolls: World Tour to solely VOD paid off - the film crushed the box office, earning just 21% less than its predecessor, Trolls. One can expect sequels to earn a bit less (especially since this one was not particularly anticipated). So the fact that Trolls: World Tour earned approximately what it was expected to earn if it had a theatrical release is considered a stunning victory. But it also has many wondering - does this mark the beginning of the end for theaters?
No, it doesn’t. There’s a lot more that led to the success of Trolls: World Tour than meets the eye. The film had the massive advantage of being released at a time when we were all, quite literally, a captive audience - many families were already bored at home and desperate for entertainment, and Universal almost certainly benefited from it. Also, a hefty majority of films scheduled to be released at the time of Trolls: World Tour were postponed, which left the animated musical with absurdly little competition at the box office.
If there’s one thing the age of quarantine has taught us, it’s that people are still very much social creatures. If anyone ever wanted to do an experiment to see how long people could be locked up in their houses before they started losing it...well, now we know. When this is all over, people will be flocking to enjoy entertainment as a social gathering again, as they will for countless years to come. There’s something about the thrill of experiencing entertainment as a collective audience, a group of strangers who are suddenly on a journey of their senses together, as one unified audience, that still proves irreplicable. That’s why we love concerts, theme parks, and comedy shows. And of course, that’s why we love movie theaters.